Ron Paul in Office, Is it Still Possible?

**Ginevra** · #1 (**permalink**) 02-01-2008, 10:06 AM

I've just noticed that I haven't heard of him winning any primary/caucuses and I know Super Tuesday isn't over yet, but if he doesn't get anything there and doesn't go independent as he's said he very most likely won't, is it over?

**Brother of Yeshua** · 02-01-2008, 10:10 AM

Whether he goes independent or not is most likely due to money.

With so many candidates being weeded out so early, Ron Paul stands to gain support from disaffected voters whose candidate's runs have been snuffed out. Even if he doesn't get the nomination (which he won't) He still has a shot here at being a substantial third party candidate.

Now the catch with that will be that the media will attempt to blackball him from any legitimate airtime or debates, much like they treated Ross Perot.

But can he win? Absolutely he can still win. The primary doesn't decide the president, just the parties nominations.

**Ginevra** · 02-01-2008, 11:19 AM

But you have to get the vote in the primaries to be on the ballot as the republican candidate, and with all the money he's getting why would he be saying that he won't run as independent? I'm thinking third party and independent are interchangeable, correct me if I'm wrong.

Ol' Patty · 02-01-2008, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ginevra

I've just noticed that I haven't heard of him winning any primary/caucuses and I know Super Tuesday isn't over yet, but if he doesn't get anything there and doesn't go independent as he's said he very most likely won't, is it over?

I don't think it is very likely for him to get the Republican nomination. If he doesn't, I don't think there will be much reason to run as an independent as he would likely lose that as well. It would be a huge waste of money and an unnecessary defeat.

Is it over then? Of course not. While it would be great if Ron Paul was elected president I think that is secondary. One man can't change everything, even if he is the president. What has happened though is Ron Paul has raised the awareness and activism in this country by leaps and bounds. That is what is important.

By actually speaking on relevant issues instead of making empty promises of prosperity he is getting people interested in the direction we are going. That is the only thing that will change our country. The people have to wake up and get involved. I think that is the real goal of this campaign.

WillyBubba · 02-01-2008, 01:49 PM

I think he's banking on something that seems unlikely to me, but I guess he'd know better. Anyway, the way the nominating process works is that delegates are sent to the Republican National Convention and for the first round of votes they have to vote along the lines that their state voted (either winner take all or split along percentages for each candidate). However, and especially if all four remain until the convention, the first vote won't give anyone enough to get the nomination.

For all subsequent votes the delegates don't have to vote according to how the people in their states voted and can cast for whoever they like. No delegates have actually been chosen yet and Paul is hoping to get a majority of delegates who back him, so even if he doesn't win outright, he can get the nomination on the second or third vote. Furthermore, I'm not sure exactly, but I think when a candidate drops out any delegates he had won are now free to vote however they like.

Also, as an aside, with the ridiculously unconstitutional things both parties' candidates are proposing, even if Paul wasn't nominated, I'd love to see him as an Independent to act as a mediating voice in debates.

**Ristaron** · 02-01-2008, 03:12 PM

Whether or not he wins or loses, it's the message that's most important. It's not the odds he has to overcome, just the media's Berlin Wall. If he were actually given the chance to speak to everyone, voters would flock to him by the hundreds, if not thousands.

However, I agree with WillyBubba in my assessment of his current situation. Ron Paul seems to be banking on a rather large presumption that he will get a majority of delegates backing him. If it's really the case, then this could easily hurt his efforts.

rightwinger · 02-01-2008, 03:23 PM

Ron Paul has no chance at winning. He's polling at around 5% in most places.

He doesn't have the money to really make it in as a 3rd party candidate either.

Quote:

with the ridiculously unconstitutional things both parties' candidates are proposing

Examples?

**Ristaron** · 02-01-2008, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rightwinger

Ron Paul has no chance at winning. He's polling at around 5% in most places.

I love how you don't give examples, yet expect them of others whenever you have nothing else to argue their point with (see below).

Quote:

Originally Posted by rightwinger

He doesn't have the money to really make it in as a 3rd party candidate either.

Having raised the most amount of money in one day, and achieved the largest online total contributions, I would say money isn't high on the list of concerns for Ron Paul's campaign.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rightwinger

Examples?

See my point?

Ol' Patty · 02-01-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ristaron

Whether or not he wins or loses, it's the message that's most important.

Hahaha, you summarized everything I had to say in a damn sentence.

rightwinger · 02-01-2008, 03:39 PM

Quote:

I love how you don't give examples, yet expect them of others whenever you have nothing else to argue their point with

Once in a while I'll ask for an example. If you want an example from me, all you need to do is ask. I'll back it up.

Quote:

Having raised the most amount of money in one day, and achieved the largest online total contributions, I would say money isn't high on the list of concerns for Ron Paul's campaign.

Sure it is. Without the backing of one of the parties..it'll be hard to get the cash in. It's one of the reasons third party candidates struggle with money.

Quote:

See my point?

I wanted an example of all the things they want, that are unconstitutional....I was wondering what he meant by that. If I say something, that you feel needs clarification....ask.

here. About the comments on poll numbers...look around:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008

He's polling in single digits. If you people are under the illusion that he has a shot at the nomination, you're kidding yourselves.

Info on money,

2008 Presidential Election

Paul has brought in 13 million less than Mccain. And the knock on Mccain was that he didn't have enough money to compete in the primary. And I'm sure now that Mccain has rallied more support all of a sudden, he'll start to raise more money.

Also. If you read the top of that page it states:

"the eventual nominees will need to raise $500 million apiece to compete—a record sum"