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Originally Posted by 4n7hr4x
I'll let you in on a little secret. Anyone who tells you that they study the economy and that they understand it (beyond the basics of supply and demand) is full of shit. And if anyone has been able to accurately predict the economy it is only because they just so happened to make their prediction during a time when nothing really changed.
The truth is economics are helpful in trying to figure out how an increase in the cost of oil will impact other areas, what it is not good for is trying to predict what it will do next. You're under the assumption that everything just happens on its own, following a certain pattern or rules that can be predicted. I'm under the assumption that our economy is under the control of a small group of well connected and very wealthy individuals, and since the two sectors of the economy that are acting the strangest are oil and the FED, that leads me to believe that the people involved work in those two fields.
Oil has gone up even though "we" (US based oil companies) now own all the oil in Iraq. Oil companies are screaming that its a supply and demand issue, just to shift blame from the real cause, even though full tankers of oil just sit and wait outside large oil refineries, more so than in the past. There is no shortage of oil, merely the illusion of it, and why would someone want to do that?... didn't Bush just close the ban on drilling in protected waters?... Hmmm I wonder why.... I'm sure Daddy's company will be the first one to buy up all that open land...
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lol do you know how much oil iraq has? of the 12 members of OPEC, Iraq's production ranks 9th. and it's not even that much oil. not to mention, Iraq is part of OPEC. so american companies can't do anything about the production of oil in iraq, because it is a set amount.
and it is a supply and demand issue. along with a weakening dollar, and along with speculation, and the commodities bubble.
china raises tax on gas, demand goes down, oil drops in price
saudi arabia agrees to increase production, supply goes up, oil drops in price.
see a pattern here?
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Originally Posted by Brother of Yeshua
Anyone who has a good professor of economics would have taught that many things are not hard and fast rules, but theories and guidelines to see market trends and how the market reacts to itself during times of change. It's not like basic math where 2+2 is always 4.
I'm just saying what others have said, I don't know enough about it to make a super educated decision, but this makes sense to me.
My point wasn't that businesses are being sold off because the business is failing, but simply the economy is collapsing in on itself, and money is about to be extremely devalued. Only the wealthiest 15-30% would have enough money to meet basic needs in the event of a major economic catyclysm of the American dollar. The trends are the same as they were before the Great Depression, and if you don't know that, you need to go to a different school for your degree.
BTW, I'm returning to school for my master's, and schooling doesn't guarantee intelligence either.
Also, what do you do with the fact that the government has said we owe over 450K a household because of their bullshit?
EDIT: Here's something from Reuters you should read.
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the key word in this whole post that proves my point, is
market trends. or more importantly, business cycles. after years of prosperity during the 90's, we are now experiencing a downturn. the media, and people like you, scare people into thinking that the economy is a lot worse than it is. until unemployment hits 10%, our GDP declines, along with inflation, i, along with many other people, will continue to agree that it is just a business cycle. so the housing bubble burst. it was bound to happen. whether it was 10 yrs ago, or 20 yrs from now.
and i don't know about the whole 450k a household. if you're talking about national debt/population, then that's a different matter, and off topic. but it does relate to my point on business cycles.
seriously, times aren't even close to rough right now. i'd say if you guys were saying this in the 70's, i'd probably have to agree. but times are different. look at the economic history of the U.S. these things come and go. ask an economist, call up a financial adviser.
and by the way, if the U.S. economy was in such bad shape, i doubt that it would receive 1.96 trillion dollars (the highest in history) in foreign direct investment. now, i highly doubt that other economist and investors would be investing in a withering economy, unless they, along with their financial advisers were betting on a turn around of the US economy.